Wins Adjusted For Schedule

Enter Your Sleeper League ID

tip

Here's how to find your Sleeper league ID

App

Go to Settings ➡️ General ➡️ Scroll to the bottom of the page ➡️ Copy League ID

Web

Your league ID is the long number in the URL for your league. An example URL: https://sleeper.com/leagues/123456789098876543

How to Read This Graph

This graph shows show much the schedule helped or hurt your team.

🟢 Green = Your team performed better than your record shows

🔴 Red = Your team performed worse than your record shows

How the Math Works

Creating Win Distributions for Each Team

A win distribution is created for each team.

A win distribution looks at every possible schedules and counts the records from each schedule. (eg. In how many schedules did Team 1 go 0-14. In how many schedules did Team 1 go 1-13, etc.)

With over $10^{56}$ possible schedules in most league formats, the counts are extremely large, so the counts are converted to a percentage by dividing by the total number of possible schedules.

Example Win Distribution

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0
Win Percentage (%)	0.030	0.560	3.510	11.05	20.75	25.25	20.79	11.82	4.67	1.27	0.230	0.020	0.010	0.000	0.000

In this example win distribution, in $11.05\%$ of schedules, the team's record was 3-11

For more details on how win distributions are created, see Win Distributions.

Expected Wins

It turns out that finding a win distribution is very helpful for finding the average number of wins a team had across all possible fantasy football schedules.

The average number of wins is the expected value of the win distribution

• Number of wins = $x$
• Percent of schedules with that many wins = $p$
• Weeks in the regular season = $k$
• Average number of wins = $E[X]$

$$E[X] = x_1p_1 + x_2p_2 + x_3p_3 + ... + x_kP_k$$

In the example, this would be

$$E[X] = (0.0003)(0) + (0.0056)(1) + (0.0351)(2) + ...$$

Expected Wins Vs Actual Wins

Once expected wins is calculated, it's simple to see how it compares to the actual wins a team had.

• If the expected win total was higher than the actual win total = Team performed better than their record shows
• If the expected win total was lower than the actual win total = Team performed worse than their record shows