Should I Have Won My League?
Enter Your Sleeper League ID
Here's how to find your Sleeper league ID
- App
- Web
Go to Settings ➡️ General ➡️ Scroll to the bottom of the page ➡️ Copy League ID
Your league ID is the long number in the URL for your league. An example URL: https://sleeper.com/leagues/123456789098876543
How to Read This Graph
This graph looks at every possible fantasy football schedule and calculates who would have won in each schedule.
The percentage for a team is the percentage of all possible fantasy football schedules that they were the champion of 🏆.
The numbers may change by less than a percentage point when refreshed. This is due to simulating playoffs. More details below!
How the Math Works
There are a few steps to calculating who should have won the league
Creating Win Distributions for Each Team
A win distribution is created for each team.
A win distribution looks at every possible schedules and counts the records from each schedule. (eg. In how many schedules did Team 1 go 0-14. In how many schedules did Team 1 go 1-13, etc.)
With over possible schedules in most league formats, the counts are extremely large, so the counts are converted to a percentage by dividing by the total number of possible schedules.
Example Win Distribution
| 0-14 | 1-13 | 2-12 | 3-11 | 4-10 | 5-9 | 6-8 | 7-7 | 8-6 | 9-5 | 10-4 | 11-3 | 12-2 | 13-1 | 14-0 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Percentage (%) | 0.030 | 0.560 | 3.510 | 11.05 | 20.75 | 25.25 | 20.79 | 11.82 | 4.67 | 1.27 | 0.230 | 0.020 | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
In this example win distribution, in of schedules, the team's record was 3-11
For more details on how win distributions are created, see Win Distributions.
Simulating Playoffs
Because there are over (100 Septendecillion) schedules in most league formats, it is too computationally expensive to check the playoffs results for each possible schedule. Instead, the playoffs are simulated 20 000 times.
To simulate the playoffs, each team is assigned a final record by sampling their win distribution. The top teams make the playoffs, which are simulated and the winner recorded.
The percentage for each team is the amount of championships each team won divided by the total number of simulations completed.